[LinuxUsers] Linux in 2012 article

[Roger E. Rustad, Jr]

Here is a good article on what Linux might look like in 2012	

http://www.informationweek.com/news/software/linux/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=210002129

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Our open source expert foresees the future of Linux: By 2012 the OS will 
have matured into three basic usage models. Web-based apps rule, 
virtualization is a breeze, and command-line hacking for basic system 
configuration is a thing of the past.

By Serdar Yegulalp
InformationWeek
August 14, 2008 04:00 AM

What will desktop Linux be like four years from now?

In the time it takes most college students to earn an undergraduate 
degree -- or party through their college savings -- Linux will continue 
to mature and evolve into an operating system that non-technical users 
can fully embrace.

The single biggest change you'll see is the way Linux evolves to meet 
the growing market of users who are not themselves Linux-savvy, but are 
looking for a low-cost alternative toMicrosoft (NSDQ: MSFT) (or even the 
Mac). That alone will stimulate enormous changes across the board, but 
there are many other things coming down the pike in the next four years, 
all well worth looking forward to.

Over the course of the last four years, Linux has taken enormous strides 
in usability and breadth of adoption. Here's a speculative look forward 
at what Linux could be like a few years from now -- or, maybe we could 
say what Linux ought to be like.

For-free Versus For-pay
Expect to see a three-way split among different versions of Linux. Not 
different distributions per se, but three basic usage models:

1. For-pay: Ubuntu's in-store $20 boxes are a good example. For a 
nominal cost, you get professional support for Linux as well as licenses 
to use patent-restricted technologies (e.g., codecs for legal DVD playback).

Expect this to at least gain nominal momentum, especially if the cost is 
no more than an impulse buy and people understand that Ubuntu can 
non-destructively share a machine with Windows. Also expect at least one 
other Linux company to pick up on this model (openSUSE, for instance), 
and to have preloads on new systems incorporate such things if they 
don't already.

2. Free to use: This is the most common model right now -- a free 
distribution with support optional, and additional optional support for 
closed-source components: proprietary, binary-only device drivers.

3. Free/libre: These distributions contain no components with patent 
encumbrances or other issues, in any form. Distributions like gNewSense 
or Blag Linux already do this, and an upcoming version of Ubuntu (8.10 / 
"Intrepid Ibex," due in October) will also feature a wholly free 
installation option.

What's also important is that over the next few years, the distinctions 
between these three licensing models will become heavily accentuated by 
both the Linux community and by the creators of these distributions 
themselves. This should help solidify for many non-technical people the 
distinction between free-as-in-speech and free-as-in-beer.

The Desktop
This year we've seen the appearance of a number of possible models for 
the Linux desktop of four years from now. One is KDE 4, which despite a 
rocky first release is quickly drawing attention for its forward-looking 
approach to desktop management. Its new desktop metaphor, named 
"Plasma", has just started to strut its stuff. After four more years and 
a bit more third-party development, it stands to be a lot more than just 
a visual curiosity, and become an actual way to get work done.

If KDE 4's new approach is too daunting, the Mac OS X inspired gOS 
desktop -- especially in its "Space" incarnation -- distills the Linux 
desktop down to its bare essentials. The gOS interface also serves as a 
front-end for many common web applications, one of the biggest ways 
people will do work on Linux in the first place. Expect to see many more 
variations on these kinds of stripped-down, click-and-go interfaces as 
ways to allow a growing base of non-technical Linux users to get on 
board with Linux. Pros will always still be able to drop to a command 
line, though.

Hardware
Right now, in 2008, Linux is present in a great many hardware devices 
without most people ever knowing about it. By 2012, it'll be a brand 
name unto itself, thanks to the exploding netbook market, where Linux 
has proven itself to be a solid way to build an inexpensive computing 
platform. By that time, many first-tier manufacturers likeDell ( Dell) 
ought to be offering such devices -- and those that already do (like HP 
(NYSE: HPQ)) will probably be looking seriously at offering more 
Linux-based gear. (As of this writing, Lenovo's just announced the 
IdeaPad S10 netbook with Linux in certain territories.)

Phones are already among the devices nowusing Linux as well, and it's 
also a growth market. ABI Research projected that by 2012, Linux will be 
powering something like 40 million mobile devices shipped that year 
alone. The definition of "mobile devices" is also expanding: in addition 
to netbooks, look for a great many Linux-powered devices with open 
architectures (the OpenMoko FreeRunner, for instance) that are designed 
to move between niches and fill more than one need at once.

No discussion of Linux hardware would be complete without some 
discussion of hardware compatibility. Obviously there's going to be 
increased attention towards open-source device drivers for existing 
hardware, but another trend is the growth of hardware with open 
accessibility and standards. If any major hardware maker doesn't have 
Linux drivers for their product by 2012, either as a first-party product 
or as a community effort, they can expect to be singled out for it 
almost immediately.

Asus's "netbook" Eee PC and similar machines are just the first of what 
promises to be a healthy platform for Linux.

Applications
What'll you be running on Linux in four years? Chances are you'll be 
running a lot of what you have now, just with a new revision to the left 
of the decimal point. OpenOffice will be either in or fast approaching 
its fourth revision, with features like interoperability with Microsoft 
VBA macros, a native 64-bit edition and quite possibly an entirely new 
interface that isn't hidebound by the program's legacy requirements.

Another important thing to expect is the use of the browser as an 
application deployment framework, or at least attempts at same. This is 
already happening to a great extent on multiple platforms -- e.g., Gmail 
instead of Outlook or even Thunderbird -- but projects like Google Gears 
are aimed at making the desktop, the browser and the network work in 
both connected and disconnected ways.

Storage
As of this writing, a 1-terabyte consumer-grade drive has hit the market 
for about $175. In four years, a terabyte will easily be half that much, 
and a home media server with an array a few terabytes in size wouldn't 
be out of the question. One possible way to organize all of that space 
is through Sun's recently open-sourced ZFS file system, which allows 
easy growth and management of file systems.

Right now, however, the licensing for ZFS only allows it to be used in 
Linux's user space -- not an impossibility, but perhaps over the next 
few years Sun can allow ZFS to be relicensed in a more GNU-friendly 
fashion to allow it as a kernel add-on. (It's also possible to run ZFS 
in an OpenSolaris implementation such as Nexenta, along with all your 
other favorite Linux-y apps.)

System Configuration
Is it optimistic to expect that by 2012, command-line hacking for basic 
Linux system configuration will be a thing of the past? One can hope, 
especially for things like display configuration, which should be 
auto-detected and configured touchlessly. This is crucial if Linux is to 
make headway with regular users, although putting Linux on devices like 
netbooks, where the hardware is a predictable and controllable factor, 
should help.

If there's any system configuration issue that divides Linux devotees, 
it's package management -- how to handle the wealth of software 
installed in a given Linux distribution. It's probably unrealistic to 
expect the plethora of distributions out there to consolidate on a 
single, one-size-fits-all package-management system, especially since 
each distribution tends to be married to its particular package 
management system. That said, the use of something like PackageKit as a 
packaging-neutral front end for a distribution might make transitions 
easier.

Also, the Conary package manager project offers some possibilities that 
deserve broader adoption, such as the ability to download and apply only 
changes to a particular package. That saves on bandwidth, which in turn 
ought to be a bonus for Linux users in developing countries where 
bandwidth is at an extreme premium.

Virtualization

Virtualization in the Linux kernel -- either in the form of KVM or Xen 
-- will make it that much easier to run Linux side by side with any 
other operating system, either as a way to migrate non-destructively 
from an existing Windows installation or as a way to expand Linux's own 
native functionality (for instance, by running multiple kernels each 
tailored for different needs).

Another possibility is to allow Windows apps to run side-by-side with 
Linux apps, using a virtual machine as the container for the former, and 
allowing cut-and-paste functionality between the two systems. To the 
uninitiated, it'll look like seamless Windows on Linux -- which is what 
we have with Wine right now, but using a VM as a wrapper would provide 
that much more flexibility. Using VMs would also make it possible to 
allow a project like ReactOS to work as a Windows container under this 
scheme.

Linux On Servers

It's almost foolish to expect Linux's dominion on the server side will 
wane -- servers are where Linux has fared best, and all the signs point 
to that only becoming all the more the case. The real question is, in 
what form?

A major part of the answer lies, again, in virtualization: Linux's 
mutability allows for its use not only as a server platform but as 
hypervisor and container for other operating systems. That said, there's 
more than one way to do such things -- KVM and Xen are two major 
contenders, but both function in markedly different ways and are 
probably best suited to different types of work. Xen's best for running 
as close to bare metal as possible, but KVM lets a particular Linux 
instance function as a container for other OSes. To that end, over the 
next four years, the question won't be "Which one's the winner?" but 
"Who's using each for what?"

Conclusions

The difference between the Linux of four years ago and the Linux of 
today is striking enough -- not just in its diversity, but in the way 
it's consolidating its strengths as a server platform, an OS for 
portable devices and emerging hardware markets -- and as a way to make 
the most out of whatever else we see in the next four years, too.